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2020 Senate statistical forecast: model mixes polls and search trends

Hacker News

2020 Senate statistical forecast: model mixes polls and search trends

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Launch Intel predictions

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Product HuntOn track for Day 1 leaderboard · Strong signals: model · Missing: mac, agents, macos
71%71% predicted probability of success on Product Hunt, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
best fitHighest predicted score across all platforms for this description.
BetaListSuited for BetaList early-adopters · Missing: web3, chat, crypto
70%70% predicted probability of success on BetaList, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
TrustMRRLess likely to generate early MRR · Missing: mobile apps, ios, personal
46%46% predicted probability of success on TrustMRR, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
AppSumoMay struggle as an AppSumo deal · Missing: plus, platform, intuitive
38%38% predicted probability of success on AppSumo, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Hacker NewsMay not resonate with HN audience · Missing: https docs, excited, just released
32%32% predicted probability of success on Hacker News, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
nativeThis product was originally launched on this platform.
Indie HackersIH features products with proven revenue · Missing: supports, reddit linkedin, podcasting
13%13% predicted probability of success on Indie Hackers, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Acquire.comPre-revenue stage for this audience · Missing: arr, mrr, revenue
13%13% predicted probability of success on Acquire.com, based on ML models trained on real launch data.

Correct prediction on native model

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