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The first forecast for the 2020 primaries; mixes polls and betting odds

Hacker News

The first forecast for the 2020 primaries; mixes polls and betting odds

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Actual performance

3points
Did not reach leaderboard

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BetaListSuited for BetaList early-adopters · Missing: web3, chat, crypto
75%75% predicted probability of success on BetaList, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
best fitHighest predicted score across all platforms for this description.
AppSumoMay struggle as an AppSumo deal · Missing: plus, platform, intuitive
43%43% predicted probability of success on AppSumo, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
TrustMRRLess likely to generate early MRR · Missing: mobile apps, ios, personal
42%42% predicted probability of success on TrustMRR, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Hacker NewsMay not resonate with HN audience · Missing: https docs, excited, just released
29%29% predicted probability of success on Hacker News, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
nativeThis product was originally launched on this platform.
Product HuntUnlikely to reach the leaderboard · Missing: mac, agents, macos
26%26% predicted probability of success on Product Hunt, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Acquire.comPre-revenue stage for this audience · Missing: arr, mrr, revenue
17%17% predicted probability of success on Acquire.com, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Indie HackersIH features products with proven revenue · Missing: supports, reddit linkedin, podcasting
9%9% predicted probability of success on Indie Hackers, based on ML models trained on real launch data.

Correct prediction on native model

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