Guess the Rose

Guess the Rose

Indie Hackers

A free weekly fantasy league for the Bachelor/Bachelorette

My team and I love building fun game products. We created a death pool for Game of Thrones that was extremely successful, and decided to try The Bachelor next.

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Actual performance

Did not reach leaderboard

Launch Intel predictions

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Hacker NewsStrong engagement from HN community · Strong signals: ide · Missing: https docs, excited, just released
55%55% predicted probability of success on Hacker News, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Indie HackersFits the IH revenue-focused audience · Strong signals: created · Missing: supports, reddit linkedin, podcasting
52%52% predicted probability of success on Indie Hackers, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
nativeThis product was originally launched on this platform.
TrustMRRLess likely to generate early MRR · Missing: mobile apps, ios, personal
44%44% predicted probability of success on TrustMRR, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
AppSumoMay struggle as an AppSumo deal · Missing: plus, platform, intuitive
32%32% predicted probability of success on AppSumo, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Product HuntUnlikely to reach the leaderboard · Missing: mac, agents, macos
17%17% predicted probability of success on Product Hunt, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Acquire.comPre-revenue stage for this audience · Missing: arr, mrr, revenue
14%14% predicted probability of success on Acquire.com, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
BetaListMay not resonate with beta-testers · Missing: web3, chat, crypto
4%4% predicted probability of success on BetaList, based on ML models trained on real launch data.

Incorrect prediction on native model

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Indie Hackers2$4,000/mob2c