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Strategic Bitcoin Lottery Wants Ideas

Hacker News

Strategic Bitcoin Lottery Wants Ideas

We've been building a strategic bitcoin lottery where your chance of winning is proportional to the square of your bet: https://bitsplit.it The site works well but we would like to increase the strategy involved in winning. The optimal strategy shouldn't just be overbetting your opponents. Would love to get some feedback.

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Actual performance

6points
Did not reach leaderboard

Launch Intel predictions

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Indie HackersFits the IH revenue-focused audience · Missing: supports, reddit linkedin, podcasting
58%58% predicted probability of success on Indie Hackers, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Hacker NewsStrong engagement from HN community · Strong signals: ide, io · Missing: https docs, excited, just released
54%54% predicted probability of success on Hacker News, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
nativeThis product was originally launched on this platform.
AppSumoStrong fit for a featured deal · Missing: plus, platform, intuitive
52%52% predicted probability of success on AppSumo, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
TrustMRRLess likely to generate early MRR · Missing: mobile apps, ios, personal
39%39% predicted probability of success on TrustMRR, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Product HuntUnlikely to reach the leaderboard · Missing: mac, agents, macos
35%35% predicted probability of success on Product Hunt, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Acquire.comPre-revenue stage for this audience · Missing: arr, mrr, revenue
16%16% predicted probability of success on Acquire.com, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
BetaListMay not resonate with beta-testers · Missing: web3, chat, crypto
8%8% predicted probability of success on BetaList, based on ML models trained on real launch data.

Incorrect prediction on native model

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