Breakdown: a daily game about guessing data distributions

Hacker News

Breakdown is a daily game where you guess how some data is distributed. Today's puzzle is "what is the world's habitable land used for." Make your best guess and then reveal the answer. You might be surprised by how far off you are (or how close). There's a new question every day, and you can also play all past questions in the archive. No account required and no ads. Inspired by the Ipsos Perils of Perception surveys, it's also an attempt to gamify testing our knowledge and biases. If this is interesting, you should also check out Perils of Perception: https://www.ipsos.com/en/perils/perils-perception-2024

Visit product View on Hacker NewsSep 16, 2026

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Actual performance

2points

Did not reach leaderboard

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TrustMRRFits verified-revenue profile · Missing: mobile apps, ios, personal

59%59% predicted probability of success on TrustMRR, based on ML models trained on real launch data.

Hacker NewsStrong engagement from HN community · Strong signals: io · Missing: https docs, excited, just released

56%56% predicted probability of success on Hacker News, based on ML models trained on real launch data.

nativeThis product was originally launched on this platform.

Indie HackersFits the IH revenue-focused audience · Missing: supports, reddit linkedin, podcasting

50%50% predicted probability of success on Indie Hackers, based on ML models trained on real launch data.

Product HuntUnlikely to reach the leaderboard · Strong signals: new · Missing: mac, agents, macos

44%44% predicted probability of success on Product Hunt, based on ML models trained on real launch data.

AppSumoMay struggle as an AppSumo deal · Missing: plus, platform, intuitive

39%39% predicted probability of success on AppSumo, based on ML models trained on real launch data.

Acquire.comPre-revenue stage for this audience · Missing: arr, mrr, revenue

23%23% predicted probability of success on Acquire.com, based on ML models trained on real launch data.

BetaListMay not resonate with beta-testers · Missing: web3, chat, crypto

2%2% predicted probability of success on BetaList, based on ML models trained on real launch data.

Incorrect prediction on native model

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