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A Confidence Calibration Game
Hacker NewsA Confidence Calibration Game
I made a trivia game for testing confidence calibration on data questions. It presents AI generated questions with numerical answers. You submit your estimate and confidence level, and the game tracks your accuracy score plus whether you're over/under confident over time.
Share cardActual performance
1points
Did not reach leaderboard
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TrustMRRFits verified-revenue profile · Strong signals: answers · Missing: mobile apps, ios, personal62%62% predicted probability of success on TrustMRR, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
best fitHighest predicted score across all platforms for this description.
Product HuntUnlikely to reach the leaderboard · Missing: mac, agents, macos41%41% predicted probability of success on Product Hunt, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
AppSumoMay struggle as an AppSumo deal · Strong signals: plus · Missing: platform, intuitive, reviews37%37% predicted probability of success on AppSumo, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Indie HackersIH features products with proven revenue · Missing: supports, reddit linkedin, podcasting36%36% predicted probability of success on Indie Hackers, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Hacker NewsMay not resonate with HN audience · Strong signals: ide, io · Missing: https docs, excited, just released34%34% predicted probability of success on Hacker News, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
nativeThis product was originally launched on this platform.
Acquire.comPre-revenue stage for this audience · Missing: arr, mrr, revenue16%16% predicted probability of success on Acquire.com, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
BetaListMay not resonate with beta-testers · Missing: web3, chat, crypto15%15% predicted probability of success on BetaList, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Correct prediction on native model
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