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Fastest-growing OSS startups for every quarter since Q2 2020

Hacker News

Fastest-growing OSS startups for every quarter since Q2 2020

Over five years ago, I started publishing the top 20 trending open-source startups every quarter, based on their relative GitHub star growth — the ROSS Index. It has become quite handy for 60K+ developers, founders, and other OSS fans who have visited it to date. To make it even more convenient, we have just open-sourced its full dataset for 22 past quarters, including the fresh list for Q3 2025, so everyone can play with it — for instance, analyze what happened with startups from the first quarters. Given that in the very first index issue (Q2 2020), 5 out of 20 early-stage startups (n8n, Hugging Face, Streamlit, Cortex Labs, Framer) eventually reached $0.5B+ valuation, it seems like an interesting area for research.

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Actual performance

5points
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Launch Intel predictions

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Product HuntOn track for Day 1 leaderboard · Strong signals: open · Missing: mac, agents, macos
76%76% predicted probability of success on Product Hunt, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
best fitHighest predicted score across all platforms for this description.
Indie HackersFits the IH revenue-focused audience · Strong signals: started, including · Missing: supports, reddit linkedin, podcasting
69%69% predicted probability of success on Indie Hackers, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Hacker NewsStrong engagement from HN community · Strong signals: lua, io, including · Missing: https docs, excited, just released
64%64% predicted probability of success on Hacker News, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
nativeThis product was originally launched on this platform.
TrustMRRLess likely to generate early MRR · Missing: mobile apps, ios, personal
42%42% predicted probability of success on TrustMRR, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
AppSumoMay struggle as an AppSumo deal · Missing: plus, platform, intuitive
33%33% predicted probability of success on AppSumo, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Acquire.comPre-revenue stage for this audience · Strong signals: growth · Missing: arr, mrr, revenue
24%24% predicted probability of success on Acquire.com, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
BetaListMay not resonate with beta-testers · Missing: web3, chat, crypto
2%2% predicted probability of success on BetaList, based on ML models trained on real launch data.

Incorrect prediction on native model

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