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A Richly Interactive AGI Alignment Chart

Hacker News

A Richly Interactive AGI Alignment Chart

Among researchers of AI and AI safety, there is a wide range of opinions on when AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is going to become available and how dangerous it will be. These seem like important questions to me, and I thought it would be useful to have an interactive chart to find other people who share your opinions on these questions (or have the opposite opinions) On my site, you can filter the opinions of well known people in the AI and AI alignment fields, as well as add your own twitter account to the site with your own views.

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Actual performance

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Launch Intel predictions

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Product HuntOn track for Day 1 leaderboard · Missing: mac, agents, macos
58%58% predicted probability of success on Product Hunt, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
best fitHighest predicted score across all platforms for this description.
TrustMRRLess likely to generate early MRR · Missing: mobile apps, ios, personal
47%47% predicted probability of success on TrustMRR, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
AppSumoMay struggle as an AppSumo deal · Missing: plus, platform, intuitive
33%33% predicted probability of success on AppSumo, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Indie HackersIH features products with proven revenue · Missing: supports, reddit linkedin, podcasting
32%32% predicted probability of success on Indie Hackers, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Hacker NewsMay not resonate with HN audience · Strong signals: ide, io · Missing: https docs, excited, just released
30%30% predicted probability of success on Hacker News, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
nativeThis product was originally launched on this platform.
Acquire.comPre-revenue stage for this audience · Strong signals: active · Missing: arr, mrr, revenue
15%15% predicted probability of success on Acquire.com, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
BetaListMay not resonate with beta-testers · Missing: web3, chat, crypto
6%6% predicted probability of success on BetaList, based on ML models trained on real launch data.

Correct prediction on native model

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