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How to Build Probabilistic Marketing Forecasts

Hacker News

How to Build Probabilistic Marketing Forecasts

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Actual performance

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Launch Intel predictions

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BetaListSuited for BetaList early-adopters · Missing: web3, chat, crypto
83%83% predicted probability of success on BetaList, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
best fitHighest predicted score across all platforms for this description.
Product HuntOn track for Day 1 leaderboard · Missing: mac, agents, macos
60%60% predicted probability of success on Product Hunt, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
TrustMRRFits verified-revenue profile · Missing: mobile apps, ios, personal
52%52% predicted probability of success on TrustMRR, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Indie HackersIH features products with proven revenue · Missing: supports, reddit linkedin, podcasting
42%42% predicted probability of success on Indie Hackers, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Hacker NewsMay not resonate with HN audience · Missing: https docs, excited, just released
39%39% predicted probability of success on Hacker News, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
nativeThis product was originally launched on this platform.
AppSumoMay struggle as an AppSumo deal · Missing: plus, platform, intuitive
32%32% predicted probability of success on AppSumo, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Acquire.comPre-revenue stage for this audience · Missing: arr, mrr, revenue
30%30% predicted probability of success on Acquire.com, based on ML models trained on real launch data.

Incorrect prediction on native model

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