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Talent vs. Luck – A recreation of the paper's model
Hacker NewsTalent vs. Luck – A recreation of the paper's model
Share cardActual performance
86points
10comments
Made the leaderboard
Launch Intel predictions
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BetaListSuited for BetaList early-adopters · Missing: web3, chat, crypto85%85% predicted probability of success on BetaList, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
best fitHighest predicted score across all platforms for this description.
Product HuntOn track for Day 1 leaderboard · Strong signals: model · Missing: mac, agents, macos59%59% predicted probability of success on Product Hunt, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Hacker NewsStrong engagement from HN community · Strong signals: io · Missing: https docs, excited, just released50%50% predicted probability of success on Hacker News, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
nativeThis product was originally launched on this platform.
TrustMRRLess likely to generate early MRR · Missing: mobile apps, ios, personal46%46% predicted probability of success on TrustMRR, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Indie HackersIH features products with proven revenue · Missing: supports, reddit linkedin, podcasting44%44% predicted probability of success on Indie Hackers, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
AppSumoMay struggle as an AppSumo deal · Missing: plus, platform, intuitive21%21% predicted probability of success on AppSumo, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Acquire.comPre-revenue stage for this audience · Missing: arr, mrr, revenue14%14% predicted probability of success on Acquire.com, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Correct prediction on native model
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