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A Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy
Hacker NewsA Set of Dice That Follows the Gambler's Fallacy
Share cardActual performance
523points
230comments
Made the leaderboard
Launch Intel predictions
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BetaListSuited for BetaList early-adopters · Missing: web3, chat, crypto80%80% predicted probability of success on BetaList, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
best fitHighest predicted score across all platforms for this description.
Hacker NewsStrong engagement from HN community · Missing: https docs, excited, just released53%53% predicted probability of success on Hacker News, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
nativeThis product was originally launched on this platform.
AppSumoMay struggle as an AppSumo deal · Missing: plus, platform, intuitive44%44% predicted probability of success on AppSumo, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
TrustMRRLess likely to generate early MRR · Missing: mobile apps, ios, personal41%41% predicted probability of success on TrustMRR, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Product HuntUnlikely to reach the leaderboard · Missing: mac, agents, macos34%34% predicted probability of success on Product Hunt, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Acquire.comPre-revenue stage for this audience · Missing: arr, mrr, revenue17%17% predicted probability of success on Acquire.com, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Indie HackersIH features products with proven revenue · Missing: supports, reddit linkedin, podcasting11%11% predicted probability of success on Indie Hackers, based on ML models trained on real launch data.
Correct prediction on native model
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